Ninety days ahead of hunger.
Weekly forecasts of food crisis risk, 90 days ahead, for 43 countries.
By the time a food crisis is declared, the harvest that caused it failed months earlier.
Rainfall, vegetation, food prices and conflict all move before people go hungry. The signal is there, but it reaches decision makers late.
CERES reads those signals every week and turns them into a forecast for the next 90 days. Every forecast is logged before the outcome is known and scored after.
What we deliver.
- Forecast the risk of a food crisis 90 days ahead, for 43 countries, every week.
- Read satellite rainfall and vegetation together with food prices and conflict.
- Log every forecast before the outcome and score it against what happened.
- Record the exact version of the code behind every forecast.
- Publish the forecasts as open data and the method on arXiv.
How it works.
- Read
- Rainfall from CHIRPS, vegetation from MODIS, and prices and conflict from open sources.
- Forecast
- A probabilistic model gives the risk for each region 90 days ahead.
- Score
- Every forecast is held to the same targets as the simplest alternative.
Behind it.
Satellite and Earth observation
More in this area.
All solutions- Ground motionSee how the ground under a dam, a road or a town moves, measured from radar satellites.
- ForestsFind forest loss and its cause from satellite images, for the EU deforestation regulation.
- InfrastructureRadar, optical images and night lights show what changes at ports, plants and at sea.
- Data fusionEarth observation data from six sources, aligned and served behind one API.
