Written down before the outcome.
Forecasts logged before anyone knows the answer, and scored in public after.
A forecast nobody scores can claim anything.
Most forecasts are judged by the people who made them, after the fact. The hits are remembered and the misses fade.
We write every forecast to a ledger before the outcome is known, record the code that produced it, and score it against what happened. CERES does this every week for 43 countries, 90 days ahead.
What we deliver.
- Log every forecast before the outcome is known.
- Record the version of the code behind each forecast.
- Score every forecast against what happened, with the same rules for every model.
- Publish the ledger and the scores for anyone to check.
How it works.
- Register
- The question, the horizon and the scoring rule are fixed first.
- Log
- Each forecast is written down with its code before the answer exists.
- Score
- When the outcome comes in, the score goes public.
Behind it.
Research and analytics
More in this area.
All solutions- Signed findingsFindings signed so anyone can replay them from the same data and the same code.
- Large cataloguesLaplace searches ESA's Gaia DR3 at full scale and puts what it finds on a star map.
- Open codeLibraries and notebooks published as open source, runnable in the browser.
- QuantumMethods evaluated on quantum hardware, as in 26 experiments delivered to the University of Osaka.
