Updates & milestones
A factual, chronological record of system launches, published research, and validation milestones. Updated when something significant ships.
CERES withdraws four runs from its own score, and publishes why
Four CERES runs from March 2026 were withdrawn from the published score. Two satellite adapters had been falling back to synthetic data when their live sources failed, and expert priors were still in place; both were removed on 6 and 7 April. The 172 affected forecasts keep their original probabilities and stay readable, are excluded from every published metric, and can never be scored, for or against. The stated reason travels with them, and a correction to that reason was appended rather than substituted when one clause in it turned out to be wrong. A withdrawal register is public.
Withdrawal register →Every CERES forecast can now name the code that produced it
Each prediction carries the commit that generated it. For every run from 7 April onward that field held the string "unknown": the resolver read git inside a container that has no git history, and the fallback fired silently on every run for months. It is fixed going forward, and the count of predictions that cannot name their code is published rather than hidden. For the ones already on the record, the producing commit was recovered from the deployment history and written to a separate column, marked as reconstructed, so an inference is never mistaken for what the pipeline recorded at the time.
Ledger metrics →A scoring engine that holds every forecaster to the same targets
CERES gained the machinery it will be judged by, built so that it judges the incumbent the same way. Forecasts are scored against persistence, the rule that copies the last observed phase forward and thinks about nothing, because on a series that barely moves that rule already scores in the high eighties and any claim worth making is a claim about the gap above it. Every contender is scored on the targets all of them can reach, and each target dropped from that intersection is recorded with the contender that could not reach it.
ORION enters live production
ORION, Northflow's conflict-monitoring domain adapter on HGE, goes live running continuous satellite intelligence for Ukraine. Monitors 9,868 infrastructure assets across five conflict zones against 10,510 georeferenced conflict events from Uppsala University's UCDP dataset (1994 to March 2026). Fuses Sentinel-1 SAR coherence every six days, VIIRS nightlights daily, Deepstate frontline updates every 30 minutes, and live Ukrainian OSINT. 28 intelligence modules and 190+ API endpoints covering automated situation reports, predictive threat forecasting, and battle damage assessment on the NATO 0 to 4 scale. A civilian safety interface tracks 2,452 schools (with UNICEF HXL export), 801 medical facilities, and 663 water systems from OpenStreetMap. EU-hosted, GDPR-native, no login or tracking, with an offline evacuation-route app. Open to the Ukrainian government and humanitarian organisations at no cost.
public.orion.northflow.no →PSE: Planetary Sensing Engine launched
Launched PSE (Planetary Sensing Engine), our open-source platform for Earth observation data fusion. Six live data connectors (ERA5, Open-Meteo, Global Solar Atlas, Sentinel-2, OpenStreetMap, World Bank), quality-weighted fusion engine, and REST API. First commercial adapter: FLUX for renewable energy intelligence. Live at pse.northflow.no. Source code at github.com/northflowlabs/pse. Apache 2.0.
pse.northflow.no →groundtruth: ERA5 station validation notebook published
Jupyter notebook validating ERA5 reanalysis data against real weather station observations across 5 stations in 5 climate zones (Oslo, Madrid, Nairobi, Toronto, Sydney). Daily 2m air temperature, 2015–2020. Powered by climval. Outputs per-station RMSE/MAE/bias/Pearson r/Taylor Skill Score scorecards, multi-panel time series, world map, and exportable HTML/JSON/Markdown validation reports. Runs fully in Binder, no credentials, no local setup. Open-Meteo + Meteostat, Apache 2.0.
Run in Binder / GitHub →CERES arXiv preprint published
Preprint "CERES: A Probabilistic Early Warning System for Acute Food Insecurity" submitted to arXiv (cs.AI / stat.AP). Covers the full 7-stage pipeline, probabilistic scoring methodology, back-validation across four historical famine events, and the public prospective verification ledger.
arXiv:2603.09425 →CERES enters live production
CERES, Calibrated Early-warning & Risk Estimation System, becomes operational, delivering weekly 90-day probabilistic famine risk forecasts across 43 countries covering ~95% of active global IPC Phase 3+ caseload. Forecasts published as open data on the United Nations OCHA Humanitarian Data Exchange under CC BY 4.0.
ceres.northflow.no →OQTOPUS quantum validation report delivered
26-experiment technical evaluation of HGE applied to the University of Osaka OQTOPUS quantum computing system completed across 3 phases. Depth invariance hypothesis confirmed at 90% confidence. Report delivered to Dr. Naoyuki Masumoto, University of Osaka. Validates HGE's instrument-agnostic architecture across both astronomical and quantum physics domains.
MARVIS v1 pipeline built and hindcast
MARVIS, Maritime Anomaly & Risk Visualisation Intelligence System, established a five-layer Bayesian inference pipeline with seven hypothesis classes, including three novel detection methods (H5b temporal escalation, H6 AIS tamper detection via haversine physics, H7 cross-basin pattern detection). Hindcast against two confirmed European subsea incidents with signed evidence bundles.
MARVIS research overview →ClimVal v0.1.1 released on PyPI
ClimVal, open-source Python library for structured statistical validation of climate model outputs, released on PyPI under Apache 2.0. Provides Taylor diagrams, bias analysis, skill scores, and systematic CMIP6/ERA5/CORDEX model comparison workflows. Serves as the EO data quality validation layer for MARVIS and CERES pipelines.
pypi.org/project/climval/ →Gaia DR3 validation summary published
Technical summary documenting operational validation of HGE on the Gaia Data Release 3 astronomical catalog, 1.8 billion objects, 220,656 binary/multiple system candidates identified. Deterministic execution verified, full provenance tracking operational, 5-step evidence verification contract confirmed. Includes LSPM J0302+0426W, a candidate hierarchical triple system.
HGE Core API enters production
HGE Core API goes live at api.core.northflow.no. Four canonical operations: submit_hypothesis, score, transition_state, get_ledger. Provides the shared L1 epistemic backbone for all domain adapters including Laplace Discovery, MARVIS, and CERES.
Laplace Discovery deployed
Laplace Discovery, Northflow's astronomy and astrophysics research platform, deployed at laplace.northflow.no with Auth0 authentication. Features Sky Survey (220,656 candidates, Aitoff projection), Observation Planner, NSS Solutions browser, Spectroscopy Queue, and Publications tracker. Powered by the Gaia DR3 HGE adapter.
laplace.northflow.no →Mission Data Pipeline released on PyPI
Mission Data Pipeline (MDP), open-source CCSDS Space Packet Protocol ETL framework for ESA and space telemetry, released on PyPI under MIT licence. Provides structured ingestion, decoding, and routing of space mission telemetry packets for institutional and research environments.
HGE evidence verification system validated
5-step verification contract producing signed evidence bundles with deterministic replay, audit invariants, policy gating, and tamper resistance completed and validated. Red-team testing confirmed integrity against 6 adversarial attack vectors. Ed25519-signed evidence bundles and SHA-256 integrity hashes operational across all domain adapters.
This record covers milestones from Q3 2025 onwards. For research publications and working papers, see the research archive.